Dear Members,
Firstly, welcome to NZ Trial Watcher, officially.
This is our weekly review summary, we covered eight meetings.
Results were marginally positive, here’s the breakdown.
PUKEKOHE – Out 54, In 52.55
TRENTHAM – Out 47, In 46
ROTORUA – Out 44, In 72.8
HASTINGS – Out 44, In 50.8
TAURANGA – Out 49, In 45.8
INVERCARGILL – Out 34, In 10
TE RAPA – Out 48, In 97.8
TRENTHAM – Out 33, In 17.5
Total: Out 353, In 393.25 = +11.4%
Overall, a frustrating week with the smaller outlays keeping us in the game, too many placings and where value was found, we didn’t get the results. Mistakes were made, on reflection we over-invested at Invercargill on Saturday, the pool of capable riders down south is thin (not just the South!) and makes shaping races difficult. Wild betting swings are significant and confusing rides common – see DIVINE REGULUS.
Highlight for the week was the Te Rapa set, +103% return with all three best bets saluting, MAKE TO STRIKE an exciting colt was heavily-backed, paraded best and the money came. DIONYSUS held firm at a tight quote in betting and was too strong late, PENDRAGON a progressive sprinter led all the way at $16, a great result. Treble on best bets paid $53 for any takers.
A good promotion for using a wide range of betting products was debut winner SKAW VALLEY, at Hastings on Wednesday. We booked the price of $10, rated $7, paid as high as $17 across most totes, and $20.83 BSP on Betfair, a clear edge in this for members.
SKAW VALLEY is a horse to follow, blinkers were applied on race-day and woke him up after being sluggish in trials, better for further and potentially a NZ Derby type so keep an eye out for when futures markets go up.
SYDNEY BOWLER was our only bet in Australia at Newcastle on Saturday evening and a nice way to finish the day. Ridden cold by Alysha Collett, which was not expected, ($2.25 into $1.75) and still too good. He can win again soon and may target the 3YO Magic Millions on the Gold Coast, in January. A $21 chance in futures betting and recommending.
Busy week coming up as we lead into Xmas, seven meetings and three trial sets, hoping we can put extra in your stocking.
Regards,
NZTW
