Numbers to note: Track Specialists – Where stables shoot the straightest
By James Lamb
‘Horses for courses’ is an old racing cliche but it’s an idiom that can provide a genuine edge for punters.
Some stables strike well above their mean at certain tracks, going from a 10% average to as high as 50%.
The below is based on data from the 2025/26 racing season, starting with a handful in New Zealand before highlighting the key track specialists in Victoria.
NEW ZEALAND
It’s a relatively small sample size of only 18 runners but Tony Pike struck at 33.33% at Cambridge last season, at average win odds of just under $4.
Stephen Marsh went at 12% for the season but his strike rate at Tauranga was closer to 20%, with 15 winners from 76 starters. He returned a healthy profit on turnover (POT) of 27% for punters.
Roger James and Robert Wellwood shot the lights out at two tracks – striking at 20% with average win odds of $11.60 at Te Rapa, and 31.6% at Trentham with a POT of over 50%.
Kevin and Stephen Gray performed well above their season average (12%) on the Awapuni Synthetic track. They had nine winners from just 35 runners, at average win odds of $4.70. Mike Breslin was also a ‘synth specialist’ with five winners and six minor placings from only 16 starters at the same track.
VICTORIA
Ciaron Maher trains winners everywhere but he was unbelievably effective at Seymour last season. Maher took 23 runners there for nine winners and five placings, with his 39% strike rate backed up by a monster POT of 69%. Robbie Griffiths was also a punters’ pal at Seymour, with a massive POT of 84.5% thanks to five winners from just 21 starters.
The McEvoys are a dominant force at Ballarat, both on the turf and synthetic tracks. Tony and Calvin saddled up 14 winners from 39 runners (36%) on the grass, and 12 from 29 (41%) on the synth. Their POT for the season sat at around 70% for both tracks. It’s the definition of a home ground advantage.
Swan Hill trainer Nathan Hobson always has to be respected on his home deck. He went at 8% last season but 12.1% at home. More importantly for punters, his profit on turnover figure was 23.2% with average win odds of $13. Just a couple of hours up the road at Mildura, Hobson saddled up only one winner from 26 runners.
Cranbourne is a track that saw a hell of a lot of racing last season and two names really jump off the stats page. Clinton McDonald, known to pull off a plunge or two over the journey, had an extraordinary 12 months at ‘Cranny’, striking at 50% from 24 runners, with a ridiculous POT of 119%. Cranbourne trainer Julius Sandhu had a strong season overall, striking at 16%, but he was lethal on his home deck with 15 winners from 54 runners at an average price of $5.20.
Mornington trainers are always hard to beat on their own patch and Jerome Hunter’s horses handle the tricky circuit better than most. Only nine of his 27 starters at Mornington missed a place last season, with a winning strike rate of 19%. It’s a smaller sample size but Pat Carey and Harris Walker went at 25% on their home track, more than double their average for the season.
Pakenham, like Ballarat, has a turf track and a synthetic course. Greg Eurell produced obscene results on the latter last season, with 10 winners from just 29 runners at average odds of $9. His POT came out at a lazy 210.2%. On the turf, Phillip Stokes saddled up 31 runners for six winners and eight placegetters. The POT was 117%, thanks to an average winning price of $11.
The Gelagotis stable consistently strikes at around 13% but that number spikes on their home track of Moe. They produced five winners from just 14 runners there last season, with a POT of 106%. They were also dynamic at Sale but had a torrid time at MRC tracks, with just one winner from 35 starters at Caulfield, Sandown and Mornington. Somewhat surprisingly, Moe was also a very happy hunting ground for Price and Kent, with an incredible six winners from just 13 starters. They don’t send many there, but when they do, look out.
Fortunes fluctuate at Warrnambool but Tom Dabernig is the most consistent trainer year-round, including their famous three-day carnival in May when the stakes are at their highest. He struck at 18% last season from 106 runners, with a positive POT of 12%. Former jumps jockey Shane Jackson also warrants plenty of respect on his home turf, with an impressive strike rate of 23% last season.
Matt Laurie also deserves a shoutout for his stats at provincial and country tracks in Victoria. He places his maiden and lower-benchmark gallopers better than most, striking at over 20% at multiple tracks – Cranbourne (9 from 36), Mornington (6 from 30), Ballarat (3 from 14) and Bairnsdale (3 from 11) – in season 2025/26.
