Six horses that can win their first Group 1 in 2026/27
By James Lamb
The racing season is drawing to a close, which means attention will soon turn to the spring carnival.
Here are half-a-dozen gallopers we believe can break through for their maiden Group 1 win next racing season (2026/27).
1. THEBUDGIESMUGLA (13:7-1-0)
The name perhaps doesn’t scream ‘Group 1 glory’, but Thebudgiesmugla has made giant strides in a short amount of time and is in the right stable (Bjorn Baker) to continue on his upward trajectory. The Redwood gelding has been winning in different ways, coming with a sweeping run from the back to take out the Listed Caloundra Cup (2400m) in impressive fashion last start. That race was a surprise springboard for Cups hero Half Yours, and while ‘The Smugla’ is unlikely to reach those lofty spring heights, a race like The Metropolitan (2400m) appeals – especially if there is some give in the ground.
Best G1 chance: The Metropolitan (2400m)
2. NATURAL FLING (2:1-1-0)
Boom colt The Next Episode, one of the favourites for the Coolmore, was too strong for Natural Fling when they clashed on the Gold Coast in May but she still ran well there coming back in trip off a dominant debut over 1100m. We haven’t seen her on a dry track yet and breeding suggests she could be effective up to 1400m or even a mile. Her half-sister Wootoon Lass finished 3rd to Skyhook in this year’s G3 Hawkesbury Guineas over 1400m. History says you don’t necessarily have to be a genuinely strong miler to win races like the Flight Stakes and Thousand Guineas, which of course are restricted to 3YO fillies. If it’s not this spring, there are also some great options in the autumn, including the Surround Stakes (1400m) and Coolmore Classic (1500m) among others.
Best G1 chance: Thousand Guineas (1600m)
3. CONCORD CONNIE (4:3-1-0)
The lightly-raced (soon to be) mare was narrowly denied on debut but has won all three starts since in comfortable fashion. It’s undoubtedly a significant jump for her from age-restricted handicaps to Group 1 company but she’s a powerful specimen who should eat up 1600m. Her win at Flemington in April was pretty special and a race like the Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) at HQ could be right up her alley, particularly if Sheza Alibi shoots for the Golden Eagle (1500m) as expected. Who knows which path Chris Waller will take with Autumn Glow.
Best G1 chances: Empire Rose Stakes (1600m), Coolmore Classic (1500m)
4. SASS APPEAL (5:4-1-0)
Sass Appeal might be fighting over the same territory as Concord Connie, with 1600m seemingly in her sweet spot at this stage. The rising 4YO by So You Think was utterly dominant winning the G2 Kewney Stakes (1600m) in March this year, putting a gap on Salty Pearl who would go on to place at Group 1 level that preparation. Her racing pattern gives her every chance of being ultra-competitive at the top level, having landed in the first couple in all four starts since her debut over 1200m. The O’Brien-trained galloper is set to resume at Flemington this Saturday (August 1).
Best G1 chances: Empire Rose Stakes (1600m), Coolmore Classic (1500m)
5. POINT BARROW (9:5-0-2)
The daughter of Blue Point started a $2.60 favourite in this year’s Oakleigh Plate (1100m), which was her first crack at a Group 1. While she never threatened there, finishing 4.25 lengths from Tropicus after settling in the last few, her SP suggests she belongs at the level. You could argue she was a touch disappointing in the G1 Sangster Stakes (1200m) when missing a place, but it was her first run interstate and she was only beaten 0.66 lengths in a blanket finish. ‘The Valley’ Group 1s look within her grasp if she gets the right tempo/luck in running.
Best G1 chances: Moir Stakes (1000m) at Sandown Hillside, Manikato Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield
6. EVAPORATE (23:6-5-4)
The Hayes-trained gelding has raced almost exclusively at the elite level across his last two campaigns and has gone close to breaking through on a number of occasions. He was beaten a head in the G1 Toorak Handicap (1600m), and also placed in the Golden Eagle (1500m), G1 CF Orr Stakes (1400m) and G1 All Star Mile. He’s not an absolute top-liner but he’s tough, generally makes his own luck up on the speed, and there are a stack of Group 1 options for a middle-distance galloper like him. He should hit the ground running early in the spring given he jumped out at Werribee last week (July 17).
Best G1 chances: Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m), Toorak Handicap (1600m), Railway Stakes (1600m)
… AND A COUPLE OF WINTER WARRIORS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TENNESSEE BOUND (6:6-0-0)
The Maher stable have certainly taken their time with this mare, who will enter the new season as a 5YO with the unblemished record of six from six. A Group 1 win (or even run) in the spring seems extremely unlikely but she could be tested at the top level in the summer/autumn in races like the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) and G1 William Reid Stakes (1200m). She’s a tricky one to assess because she’s been so well-placed against moderate opposition to date, but she does have a bit of Marabi about her – a similar free-running type who Maher shepherded through the grades before becoming an Oakleigh Plate winner at just her seventh career outing.
OLIVEANOTHERDAY (7:5-1-0)
This Dabernig-trained gelding has had an unbelievable year, winning all four of his starts by a combined margin of over a dozen lengths. It’s a long way from the Wangoom at The ‘Bool to Group 1 glory but he showed a brilliant turn-of-foot in the slop there and we’ve seen less talented types win G1s on heavy tracks (shoutout to Shelby Sixtysix).
